I wouldn't bet that the wheel well is off center. These things are cut in big jigs, and I can't imagine a cutting error such as you describe (and picture).
My first question would be whether or not the tires are wearing strangely. Realizing that you have only one of the original tires, make some tread depth measurements on that "old" tire. Specifically, look at tread depth near the outside of the tread, as well as depth near the inside of the tread. They should be equal.
You might also get a BIG carpenter's square (a roofer's square or bigger) and slither under the TM with it. Is the axle square with the frame? Be sure to make each measurement twice at the same place - once with the leg of the square pointed left, and again with it pointed right. If they agree, fine. But if they are a bit different, then your square is a bit out of square, and you have to mentally take the average.
WMTire, please chime in here.
Bill
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